posterior belief
Overleaf Example
Datasets often suffer severe selection bias; clinical labels are only available on patients for whom doctors ordered medical exams. To assess model performance outside the support of available data, we present a computational framework for adaptive labeling, providing cost-efficient model evaluations under severe distribution shifts. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process over states defined by posterior beliefs on model performance. Each batch of new labels incurs a "state transition" to sharper beliefs, and we choose batches to minimize uncertainty on model performance at the end of the label collection process. Instead of relying on high-variance REINFORCE policy gradient estimators that do not scale, our adaptive labeling policy is optimized using path-wise policy gradients computed by auto-differentiating through simulated roll-outs. Our framework is agnostic to different uncertainty quantification approaches and highlights the virtue of planning in adaptive labeling. On synthetic and real datasets, we empirically demonstrate even a one-step lookahead policy substantially outperforms active learning-inspired heuristics.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.46)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (0.46)
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Variational Bayesian Unlearning
This paper studies the problem of approximately unlearning a Bayesian model from a small subset of the training data to be erased. We frame this problem as one of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate posterior belief of model parameters after directly unlearning from erased data vs. the exact posterior belief from retraining with remaining data. Using the variational inference (VI) framework, we show that it is equivalent to minimizing an evidence upper bound which trades off between fully unlearning from erased data vs. not entirely forgetting the posterior belief given the full data (i.e., including the remaining data); the latter prevents catastrophic unlearning that can render the model useless. In model training with VI, only an approximate (instead of exact) posterior belief given the full data can be obtained, which makes unlearning even more challenging. We propose two novel tricks to tackle this challenge. We empirically demonstrate our unlearning methods on Bayesian models such as sparse Gaussian process and logistic regression using synthetic and real-world datasets.
Resilient by Design -- Active Inference for Distributed Continuum Intelligence
Donta, Praveen Kumar, Lapkovskis, Alfreds, Mingozzi, Enzo, Dustdar, Schahram
Failures are the norm in highly complex and heterogeneous devices spanning the distributed computing continuum (DCC), from resource-constrained IoT and edge nodes to high-performance computing systems. Ensuring reliability and global consistency across these layers remains a major challenge, especially for AI-driven workloads requiring real-time, adaptive coordination. This work-in-progress paper introduces a Probabilistic Active Inference Resilience Agent (PAIR-Agent) to achieve resilience in DCC systems. PAIR-Agent performs three core operations: (i) constructing a causal fault graph from device logs, (ii) identifying faults while managing certainties and uncertainties using Markov blankets and the free energy principle, and (iii) autonomously healing issues through active inference. Through continuous monitoring and adaptive reconfiguration, the agent maintains service continuity and stability under diverse failure conditions. Theoretical validations confirm the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Overleaf Example
Datasets often suffer severe selection bias; clinical labels are only available on patients for whom doctors ordered medical exams. To assess model performance outside the support of available data, we present a computational framework for adaptive labeling, providing cost-efficient model evaluations under severe distribution shifts. We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process over states defined by posterior beliefs on model performance. Each batch of new labels incurs a "state transition" to sharper beliefs, and we choose batches to minimize uncertainty on model performance at the end of the label collection process. Instead of relying on high-variance REINFORCE policy gradient estimators that do not scale, our adaptive labeling policy is optimized using path-wise policy gradients computed by auto-differentiating through simulated roll-outs. Our framework is agnostic to different uncertainty quantification approaches and highlights the virtue of planning in adaptive labeling. On synthetic and real datasets, we empirically demonstrate even a one-step lookahead policy substantially outperforms active learning-inspired heuristics.
- Research Report > Experimental Study (1.00)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.67)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Directed Networks > Bayesian Learning (0.67)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.46)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (0.46)